Warner, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KABR 072050
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
350 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the
region.
- Mainly elevated smoke will move across the area Monday. Some of
this smoke will near the surface with visibility reductions possible
mainly west of the Missouri River Monday afternoon into Monday night.
- There is a 20% chance of showers and a few storms late tonight
into Monday morning over potions of east central SD into west
central MN. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Each day the flat cumulus clouds shift just a little farther east,
along with the surface ridge. We`re now set up with south to
southeasterly winds between the exiting ride and elongated surface
trough over MT/eastern WY/far southwestern SD. Much warmer air is
expected tonight. Unlike lows in the 30s, they will only fall into
the 50 to 60 degree range tonight, lowest near the North Dakota
border. Looking at the satellite imagery today, smoke has been
abundant over WY and northern MT. While much of this is elevated on
the eastern side, it is at the surface and showing air quality
issues (per the EPA fire.airnow.gov page). The 12Z HRRR indicated
that this elevated smoke will move to the surface and result in 4-
5SM visibilities over portions of central SD as early as Monday
afternoon, mainly west of the MO River. This has been added to our
forecast as well. We have also continued the trend of increasing
cloud cover based on the smoke as well. Depending on how thick the
smoke gets it could hamper temperatures from reaching the mid to
upper 80s west of the MO River on Monday. 80s will be common across
the entire forecast area, with upper 70s across west central MN.
Otherwise, we`ll be tracking the surface low as it moves across
central SD Monday afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of light
showers or thunderstorms ahead of the surface low over far eastern
SD and west central MN late tonight into Monday morning and again
Monday night as the surface low will sinks across southeastern
SD Dakota Tuesday afternoon.
The 500mb ridge to our west will be overhead Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs will stay mainly in the 80s through the period, with lows in
the 50s to mid 60s. Limited precipitation chances will continue.
We`ll me monitoring the track of the next low to our west Thursday
into early Friday. While there is still some uncertainty on timing
and location, a surface low will likely be across the Dakotas
Saturday into Sunday. The highest chances of precipitation (20-50%)
will be Friday night into Saturday, highest over central SD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
Elevated smoke will move in on Monday, with near surface smoke
with the potential to reduce visibilities at airports near and
west of the MO River (PIR/MBG) Monday afternoon.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion