Watts, California Weather Forecast Discussion

700
FXUS66 KLOX 241620
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
920 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...24/902 AM.
Cooler temperatures are expected today and especially tomorrow as
onshore flow increases and humidities decrease. Skies will be
partly cloudy today then mostly sunny Thursday and Friday, except
for possibly some afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains as well as some morning low clouds and fog near the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...24/919 AM.
***UPDATE***
After quite a display of lightning (roughly 2600 strikes)
along with some scattered showers last night and early this
morning weather conditions are starting to return to normal. The
storms have moves north and there`s just some scattered clouds
remaining. Overall expecting a quiet day of weather. Could still
see a scattered shower or two across interior SLO County this
afternoon and evening as there`s still some instability and
moisture lingering there. One of the REFS solution shows a
potential for a moderate to heavy shower there but most are much
lighter. And not expected any additional precip or lightning
activity elsewhere today.
Today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday as onshore flow
is increasing and heights aloft have lowered as the upper low has
pulled closer to the coast. The Central Coast will notice the
biggest drop with temperatures 6-12 degrees cooler than yesterday.
***From Previous Discussion***
The upper low will then move to the SE across the state on
Friday. The increased onshore flow and falling hgts from the low
will allow a decent amount of morning stratus to form across the
coasts. The core of the upper low will pass close enough to the
mtns of VTA county to create a slight chc of TSTMs there in the
afternoon. Max temps will cool further across VTA and LA county as
the hgt falls and onshore flow combine. SLO and SBA counties will
warm in the wake of the departing low.
The upper low will then move due south through SAN county and into
nrn Baja on Friday. The weak lift from the dying low will be
enough to bring a deep marine layer cloud deck all the way into
the vlys. This will cool the csts and vlys another 2 to 4 degrees
(the increased hgts in the wake of the low will allow for some
warming across the interior). This cooling will lower vly temps to
the upper 70s to mid 80s while coastal temps will mostly be in the
mid 70s.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...24/333 AM.
The upper low will spin near Yuma on Saturday. The day should be
pretty dull with just some morning low clouds and max temps 4 to 8
degrees blo normal.
The low finally kicks out on Sunday and very weak ridge moves into
Srn CA on Sunday. This will bring 1 to 2 degrees of warming to
many areas.
An decent upper low (544 dam) swings into the pac NW early next
week. It will not have much of an effect on the Srn CA weather
which will see night through morning low clouds and not much
change in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1209Z.
At 0515Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 1500 feet with a temperature of 26 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Pretty good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX and KSBA. VFR
cig and vis are likely but there is a 50 percent chc of TSRA
through 16Z. Brief MVFR cig/vis possible under heavier showers or
TSRA.
Low confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA. There is a 40 percent
chc of IFR cigs 12Z-16Z. There is a 20 percent chc of a TSRA
through 16Z
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. There is a 30
percent chc of IFR cigs through 16Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
BKN006 conds through 16Z. Low clouds may not arrive until 08Z
tonight. Any east winds should be less than 7 knots.
KBUR...High confidence in forecast.
&&
.MARINE...24/859 AM.
For the waters southwest through northwest along the Central
Coast, there is a 30 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds this afternoon and evening, increasing to 60 percent
during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. The best chance of
SCA conditions will be 30 to 60 NM offshore.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-40 percent
chance of SCA levels winds during the afternoons and evenings
both today and Thursday. The best chance of SCA conditions will be
for the western Santa Barbara Channel.
Moisture from a tropical disturbance will continue to bring a
chance of showers/thunderstorms to the Santa Barbara Channel and
the waters north and west of San Miguel Island through this
morning, ending by the afternoon. Any thunderstorm that forms
will be capable of producing local gale force winds, rough seas
and lightning.
&&
.BEACHES...24/854 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell is progged to develop
across the coastal waters over the weekend as Hurricane Narda
will enter a window favorable for southerly swells. Hazardous rip
currents and elevated surf are very likely to develop at Los
Angeles and Ventura County beaches over the weekend and into early
next week, but there is a moderate chance that a high surf
advisory will be needed over the weekend into Monday night or
Tuesday. If planning to head to the beach this weekend, please
check in with a lifeguard before entering the water.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall/Lund/ASR
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion