Wenatchee, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

727
FXUS66 KOTX 111129
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
429 AM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains, southeast
  Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle Thursday and Friday.
- Areas of smoke and haze through the weekend, especially near
  wildfires.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region will continue through late week. Areas of smoke and haze
are expected to continue through at least the weekend,
especially near wildfires.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Thursday and Friday: A closed upper-level low centered over northern
California, northwest Nevada, and southeastern Oregon will slowly
move northeast through the end of the workweek. For Thursday, the
position of the low will keep the Inland Northwest in a moist, south
to southeast flow. Weather on Thursday will be very similar to
Wednesday`s weather as vorticity maxes rotate around the broad upper-
level low. For Thursday, the most favorable area for scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be across southeast Washington and
the southern and central Idaho Panhandle, but isolated pop-up
convection over the Cascades and the northern mountains is expected
to develop again in the afternoon. Across southeast Washington and
the central and southern Idaho Panhandle, the southerly flow will
continue to draw moisture northward with precipitable water values
increasing to 150-200% of normal. Model soundings show 500-1000 J/kg
of uncapped surface-based CAPE in the afternoon, which will favor
thunderstorm development. With the increase in moisture and little
to no shear, the greatest concern with any storms will be heavy
rainfall. Probabilities for 0.50 inches of rain in one hour has
increased to 50% across the Camas Prairie and southern Shoshone
County. There are no high-risk burn scars in these areas and with
the ongoing drought, confidence in flash flooding is low. That said,
any heavier showers that develop over steep terrain may localized
impacts such as rocks or mud in roads. Additionally, any storms that
develop will also bring a a risk of gusty outflow winds of 25-45 mph.
For Friday, the upper-level low lifts northeast into western Montana
as an upper-level ridge noses into central Washington. A continued
threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms will exist across north
Idaho and far eastern Washington.
Saturday through Wednesday: Saturday will be the first day a week
where there is not a chance of showers or thunderstorms across the
Inland Northwest as the ridge becomes centered over the PNW ahead of
an approaching upper-level trough and cold front. This will bring a
brief period of warmer and drier conditions.
Uncertainty in the forecast significantly increases for Sunday and
Monday with respect to the track and strength of the upper-level
trough. A scenario where the center of the low tracks to the south
of Washington would result in warmer and drier conditions across the
Inland Northwest. Whereas a more northerly track across Washington
and north Idaho would be a wetter and cooler scenario for the Inland
Northwest. Right now, 63% of ensembles resemble the wetter/cooler
scenario, but the other 37% should be completely forgotten about.
The NBM is favoring the wetter/cooler scenario though with
precipitation chances increasing to 30-60% across the entire Inland
Northwest.
Model ensembles are in general agreement for another ridge developing
over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures warming
again. There does remain some uncertainty in this however, with 30%
of members wanting to bring another system into the PNW mid-week.
/vmt
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Lingering showers over central Washington from the
boundary that moved through later last night will last for the
next couple hours. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail
throughout the forecast period. Smoke and haze will be around
until further notice, especially near wildfires. Tonight brings
another chance for afternoon, evening, and overnight
thunderstorms, with LWS/PUW seeing the best (30 percent)
chances. Chances for thunderstorms and showers goes up through
the GEG/SFF/COE area and through the Idaho Panhandle, with
these areas having a 15 percent chance and higher.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions. Moderate confidence in
thunderstorms near LWS/PUW is around 30 percent, and low
confidence in thunderstorms near GEG/SFF/COE.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        84  56  82  56  83  56 /  10  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  83  57  81  56  83  56 /  30  20  10  20   0   0
Pullman        77  52  77  51  80  53 /  40  50  20  20   0   0
Lewiston       83  61  83  60  86  61 /  50  50  30  20   0  10
Colville       87  45  83  46  83  45 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      82  50  80  51  80  51 /  30  20  20  30  10  10
Kellogg        81  56  76  57  79  57 /  50  50  40  40  20  10
Moses Lake     85  55  84  53  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      88  61  86  60  84  61 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           90  59  88  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
County- Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Wenatchee Area-
Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion