Whitewater, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

467
FXUS64 KEPZ 271135 AAA
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
535 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Most recent guidance is pointing to a notable downtrend in
precipitation potential today. Ample debris clouds will work to
create widespread CIN for much of our central and eastern zones.
The anticipated forcing appears to also be lagging. As such, did
trim PoPs back across the entire CWA to depict more isolated to
widely scattered coverage today into this evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, increasing in
   coverage on Sunday. A few storms could be strong with heavy
   rainfall and wind gusts. Best chances for rain will be Sunday
   morning and afternoon, especially east of the Rio Grande.
- Drier and warmer weather next week. Lowlands highs in the upper
   eighties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Radar currently seeing light rain showers across northern
Chihuahua and along the International Border. This weak activity
will hang around over the next few hours as it decays, leading to
a dry but cloudy Saturday morning.
Big picture weather pattern shows a deep closed low over southern
California, and an upper ridge over southern Texas. The El Paso
region sits in between these two features, in prevailing southwest
flow aloft. Moisture content is slightly above normal, with
precipitable water values 1.0-1.2".
Short-term models have backed off considerably on rain chances for
Saturday, decreasing storm coverage quite a bit in recent runs.
This is likely due to models picking up on morning cloud coverage
and lack of surface heating eroding instability and delaying
convective initiation Saturday afternoon. Shortwave aloft models
have been resolving within the broadly diffluent flow is also
delayed. Right now, storm coverage for Saturday afternoon looks
way more isolated (10-20%) than previous forecasts insinuated.
Tomorrow will also be a bit cooler, with lowland highs in the
lower 80s.
Best rain chances look to highest Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a vort max moves up the Rio Grande valley. Uptick in
coverage will likely occur after sunset tomorrow, with scattered
to numerous rain showers overnight into Sunday. Overnight flood
threat will be something to monitor.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the day on
Sunday, especially east of the Rio Grande as the plume of deeper
moisture shift east during the day. Main concern will be flooding,
especially for the Sacramento Mountains and Lincoln National
Forest. Otero and Hudspeth Counties currently have the highest QPF
of our forecast area on Sunday. New rain amounts 0.50-1.00" for
many areas there.
Monday will be the beginning of a drying trend, as the Pacific low
opens up and progresses over the Central Rockies. Rain chances
hang around Monday afternoon, especially over central New Mexico
and the Sacramento Mountains. Most of the I-10 corridor will stay
dry on Monday.
Upper high pressure builds in to the U.S. Southwest Tuesday
through the rest of the week, bringing and end to rain chances as
allowing temperatures to climb back to above normal by next
Wednesday. Lowland highs will return to the upper 80s, and we may
even see a few more 90s in El Paso. Long term outlook points to
the end of the 2025 Monsoon Season, with future rain chances
becoming increasingly influenced by the polar jet flow and Pacific
low pressure systems.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Isold shwrs are tracking nely across the forecast area but are not
causing reductions in cigs/vsbys to terminals. Expect activity to
clear during the first few hours of the TAF period. Isold shwrs
and tstms will favor swrn NM in the aftn before spreading to
centrl zones closer to 28/00Z. Shwrs and tstms are expected to
increase in coverage across centrl and ern areas aft 28/06Z. Any
direct hits to terminals will likely result in brief and lcl
MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Approaching upper low will bring increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms through Sunday. Coverage will increase on
Sunday, leading to an enhanced risk of burn scar flash flooding.
Minimum RH will remain well above critical thresholds through the
weekend. Drier air will filter in as the low ejects eastward on
Monday, allowing for a reduction in RH of around 5 to 15 percent
compared to Sunday afternoon`s readings. A warming and drying
trend will take hold through the end of the work week but will
continue to stay above 20 percent. Light winds will prevail
throughout the forecast period with the exception of thunderstorm
outflows.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80  63  82  63 /  30  80  80  60
Sierra Blanca            73  56  75  52 /  30  80  90  50
Las Cruces               76  58  78  57 /  30  80  80  50
Alamogordo               77  57  79  57 /  40  80  80  50
Cloudcroft               56  41  57  41 /  40  80  90  50
Truth or Consequences    75  57  76  57 /  30  60  70  50
Silver City              72  52  72  53 /  40  50  60  40
Deming                   80  58  80  57 /  30  60  60  40
Lordsburg                78  58  79  59 /  30  40  40  20
West El Paso Metro       77  64  79  62 /  30  70  80  60
Dell City                76  58  79  54 /  40  70  80  40
Fort Hancock             79  62  81  59 /  30  80  90  50
Loma Linda               70  56  72  55 /  40  80  90  60
Fabens                   78  61  80  59 /  30  80  80  50
Santa Teresa             76  61  79  59 /  30  70  70  50
White Sands HQ           76  60  78  59 /  30  80  90  60
Jornada Range            75  57  77  57 /  30  80  90  60
Hatch                    78  59  79  57 /  30  70  80  50
Columbus                 80  60  81  59 /  30  50  50  40
Orogrande                74  57  76  55 /  30  80  90  60
Mayhill                  65  46  67  45 /  50  80  90  40
Mescalero                68  45  69  45 /  40  80  90  60
Timberon                 63  45  65  44 /  40  80  90  50
Winston                  68  47  69  46 /  40  50  70  50
Hillsboro                75  54  75  54 /  30  70  70  50
Spaceport                74  56  74  55 /  30  70  80  60
Lake Roberts             73  47  73  49 /  40  60  70  40
Hurley                   74  53  74  54 /  40  50  60  40
Cliff                    79  55  79  55 /  40  40  40  20
Mule Creek               75  51  77  53 /  40  40  30  20
Faywood                  73  55  73  54 /  40  60  60  40
Animas                   80  58  80  57 /  40  30  30  10
Hachita                  78  57  78  56 /  40  40  40  30
Antelope Wells           79  56  79  57 /  40  30  40  20
Cloverdale               74  54  77  54 /  40  30  30  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion