Windermere, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

108
FXUS62 KMLB 261128
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
728 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Scattered showers and storms will be possible today, with
  increasing coverage of activity anticipated into this weekend.
- There continues to be a high chance (80%) for AL94 to develop
  into a tropical system over the next couple of days.
- There is increasing confidence in deteriorating marine and
  coastal conditions along the east central Florida coast and
  across the local waters from AL94.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough extending from the Great Lakes
down towards the Ark-La-Tex region is forecast to drift eastward
through today, with a cutoff low developing at the base of the
trough and settling across the southeastern U.S. late today into
the overnight hours. At the surface, an area of low pressure
analyzed roughly across northern Georgia will slowly drift
eastward, with its attendant cold front moving across southeastern
Alabama, western Georgia, and portions of the Florida panhandle
today into tonight. This will lead to a slow retreat of an area of
high pressure out across the Atlantic that stretches towards the
peninsula.
Across east central Florida, light southwest winds are
anticipated to continue advecting moisture from the Gulf out ahead
of this front, resulting in PWATs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches locally.
Minimal cloud coverage through the morning hours will allow for
efficient daytime heating across the area, with afternoon
temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. This will
prompt the development of the east coast sea breeze, though
prevailing southwesterly flow in the low and mid-levels may make
progression inland slow. A sea breeze collision favoring east
central Florida is anticipated this afternoon, with coverage of
showers and storms forecast to increase as a result of the
boundary collision. Additional boundary collisions from outflow
boundaries associated with showers and storms ahead of the main
collision also cannot be ruled out, which would prompt greater
coverage. Rain and storm chances across the area today remain
between 40 to 50 percent, with the greatest coverage forecast
across the interior just west of I-95.
The environment will be primed for storm development, with MUCAPE
values of 1500 J/kg and greater forecast along with steep low-
level lapse rates thanks to daytime heating. DCAPE values of 600
to 900 J/kg also favor gusty winds with storm activity. Overall,
any storms that form today may be capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and brief heavy
downpours. Steering flow out of the southwest around 10 to 15 mph
will keep activity moving towards the coast through the afternoon
hours, with brief funnel clouds and even a weak tornado or
waterspout not able to be ruled out along any boundary
collisions. Activity is anticipated to move offshore and out
across the local Atlantic waters late this evening into the
overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Overnight
lows fall into the low to mid 70s areawide, with mostly clear
skies.
Saturday-Monday...Troughing aloft over the southeastern U.S. is
forecast to persist into the weekend and early next week, with the
aforementioned cold front drifting closer towards the peninsula
on Saturday and stalling across the area into Sunday and Monday.
In addition to the frontal set-up locally, all eyes also remain on
the tropics as AL94 is forecast to move northward across the
southwestern Atlantic and near the southeastern U.S., with
growing confidence in some sort of impact along the southeastern
U.S. coast.
Locally, shower and storm chances across east central Florida are
forecast to increase over the weekend as a result of the
approaching frontal boundary and the elevated moisture. Rain and
storm chances are forecast to be 50 to 70 percent, falling to 40
to 50 percent on Monday as AL94 moves northward directly parallel
of Florida out over the Atlantic. Any storms that manage to
develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Small hail also cannot be ruled out
over the weekend as temperatures cool aloft. Activity is
anticipated to diminish across the peninsula each evening, with
ongoing development possible each night across the local Atlantic
waters. Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
There does remain a significant level of uncertainty relative to
AL94`s potential track and intensity, though confidence in its
formation into a tropical system over the next couple of days
remains high (80%). Locally, confidence of coastal and marine
impacts from AL94 continues to grow. Increasing seas along with
long period swells are anticipated to cause rough, dangerous surf
conditions along with a high risk of rip currents Sunday into
Monday. A High Surf Advisory and Rip Current Statement will likely
be needed at some point based on these forecasted conditions.
Entering the surf will be strongly discouraged late this weekend
into early next week. Marine conditions will also be
deteriorating, with rough, choppy seas across the local Atlantic
waters and intracoastal waters. It remains to be seen whether
there will be any additional impacts from AL94 felt locally.
Residents and visitors of the east central Florida area are
strongly encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast over the
next couple of days and ensure hurricane plans and supplies are in
place if needed.
Tuesday-Thursday...Troughing aloft in the wake of AL94 is
forecast to persist across the southeastern U.S. through the
extended period, with the stalled boundary finally washing out
across Florida mid week. Drier air filters in from the north
behind AL94, keeping PoPs below normal Tuesday through Thursday
(20 to 40 percent). Stuck with the NBM through the extended period
as a good middle ground for now due to some minor discrepancies
between major global models on timing relative to the return of
moisture to the peninsula. Storm development through the extended
period cannot be ruled out, with lightning, gusty winds, and brief
downpours likely the main concerns with any activity. Lingering
coastal concerns will also need to be monitored through the
extended period behind AL94 due to higher seas and long period
swells. Temperatures are forecast to cool through the period,
starting in the upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday and falling into
the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Lows are forecast to generally
be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A cold front will slowly approach east central Florida late this
week into the weekend, resulting in increasing rain and storm
chances across the local Atlantic waters. Light southwesterly flow
becomes more onshore as the east coast sea breeze develops each
afternoon through Saturday, with shower and storm activity
forecast to move offshore into the overnight hours. Seas remain
generally between 2 to 3 feet today into Saturday, with generally
favorable boating conditions anticipated outside of shower and
storm activity.
Boating conditions begin to deteriorate across the local Atlantic
waters starting on Sunday as a tropical disturbance (AL94) moves
uncomfortably close to the local waters. Winds shift to out of the
northeast on Sunday and increase to 15 to 20 knots, backing to
out of the north at 15 to 25 knots on Monday as AL94 moves
northward parallel to Florida. Increasing seas and periods are
anticipated across the local waters as a result of AL94, leading
to dangerous boating conditions across the waters. Seas are
forecast to increase to 4 to 8 feet across the nearshore waters
and 6 to 10 feet across the offshore waters Sunday into Monday.
Scattered showers and storms are also forecast to persist across
the local waters through late weekend and into early next week.
Lingering seas up to 10 feet are anticipated to continue into
Tuesday as AL94 moves farther away from Florida, with a slow
recovery of seas anticipated through the extended period. Lower
rain and storm chances will be possible as drier air moves in
across the area behind AL94, with north to northwest winds of 15
to 20 knots forecast through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 728 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
CAM and LAV guidance has not been consistent in recent runs for
shower and storm chances today. However, given the available
moisture and sea breeze collision expected this afternoon, have
maintained the earlier VCTS for MCO/ISM/SFB and included DAB, with
VCSH for LEE/MLB/TIX. Timing for this area looks to be between
22-3Z, with convection possibly lingering into the late evening,
though have not included TEMPOs at this time due to the
uncertainty. The Treasure Coast (VRB/FPR/SUA) still appear to have
an earlier start and end time (18-22Z), with a few storms.
Light southerly winds this morning will become E/SE this afternoon
behind the sea breeze at around 10 kts. Then, return to light and
generally southerly/variable by the late evening hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  73  88  73 /  40  40  70  50
MCO  93  75  91  74 /  50  30  70  40
MLB  89  75  89  75 /  40  30  60  50
VRB  90  73  90  74 /  40  30  60  50
LEE  91  74  89  73 /  50  40  70  30
SFB  92  75  90  73 /  50  30  70  40
ORL  92  75  90  74 /  50  30  70  40
FPR  90  73  90  73 /  40  30  60  50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion