Wollochet, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

729
FXUS66 KSEW 180249
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
742 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.UPDATE...Fair weather remains in place over much of western
Washington this evening as flow turns onshore tonight. Smoke from
the Bear Gulch fire is expected to remain aloft with no air quality
issues expected. Minor updates to the Aviation and Marine sections
can be found below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Mild weather conditions across western Washington
through the remainder of the week with onshore flow. A low
pressure system will move into the region Saturday, bringing
widespread rain and breezy winds. Conditions are favored to dry
out early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...Cooler today and in the
60s and 70s with onshore flow. There are a few 80s in the Cascade
foothills but not 90s like we saw yesterday. Most notable on
satellite is the large smoke plume from the Bear Gulch fire in the
SE Olympics. Most of the smoke is aloft but there are a few
pockets of degraded air quality.
Weak troughing remains over the region on Thursday for more dry
and mild weather. Winds at 850mb switch to northerly which will
bring Bear Gulch wildfire smoke down south, possibly impacting
areas like Shelton. Expect patchy morning low clouds with
afternoon sunbreaks.
We`re under broad, flat, ridging on Friday for one more dry and
mild day. The flow remains onshore with temperatures close to
average.
Wet weather returns on Saturday as the next frontal system moves
inland. The interior will be dry in the morning, then rain
increasing during the afternoon and evening. The coast and
mountains will see wetting rains through Saturday night thus
keeping the fire weather threat low. 33
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Showers linger into Sunday
under moist, westerly, flow. We may see showers with a convergence
zone over the central sound Sunday afternoon. A blocking ridge
over the Intermountain West keeps western WA mainly dry moving
into Monday and Tuesday. The surface flow is light with
temperatures close to average. Some moisture advects north and into
the region by midweek for showers. 33
&&
.AVIATION...VFR area-wide this evening but not expected to last as
current marine push will start bringing low-level stratus into the
area. Coastal sites should fill in first and see MVFR conditions by
06Z, then IFR/LIFR overnight. Interior terminals are expected to
lower down to MVFR generally after 12Z-14Z. There is a small chance
of seeing IFR (15-30%) and LIFR (10-20%) for the interior terminals.
Improvement to VFR expected after 19Z-21Z, with the coast being last
to improve. With wind direction shifting to a W/NW direction, it
should keep the smoke from the Bear Gulch fire in the Olympics away
from KCLM for the TAF period. However, may see some of the smoke
drift towards BLI. Breezy winds from this afternoon have already
begun to subside some with most terminals reporting speeds generally
4-8 kts. SEA however is still experiencing 8-14 kt, with gusts up to
20 kt. These speeds should ease to join other terminals by 06Z
tonight.
KSEA...VFR conditions into tonight. Low stratus is expected to
impact the terminal overnight, lowering conditions to MVFR. Guidance
hints at a low chance of seeing IFR (20%) and LIFR (10%).
Improvement into VFR expected after 19z-20z. Breezy NE winds still
in place this evening 8-14 kt with gusts up to 20 through around
06Z, before easing, reaching their slowest speeds around 4-6 kts
after 10Z. Winds shift back NW late Thursday morning.
29/18
&&
.MARINE...Surface high pressure will continue to build over area
waters through Friday with lower pressure inland, promoting onshore
flow. A westerly push continues across the Strait of Juan de Fuca
this evening and although most locations are seeing sustained winds
less than SCA criteria, a number of stations are still reporting
gusts exceeding said criteria. As such, the Small Craft Advisory
will remain in effect for the central and eastern portions of the
Strait through early Thursday morning. In addition, northwesterly
winds over the coastal waters will increase tonight into Thursday,
for which a Small Craft Advisory also remains in effect.
A low pressure system is expected to move over the waters this
weekend. Guidance is hinting at a strong push through the Strait of
Juan de Fuca Saturday evening into Sunday morning. In addition,
winds may approach small craft thresholds over the northern inland
waters, with currently probabilities at 30-60% of exceeding 21 kt.
Seas will continue to build to 8-10 ft through Thursday. In
addition, seas will be seep with a dominant period of 10 to 11
seconds. Seas will subside starting on Friday to 4-6 ft and will
build again on Sunday to 7-9 ft.
29/18
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Weak onshore flow pattern in the lower levels
will keep minimum relative humidity values well above critical
levels through Friday. Frontal system arriving over the weekend
with wetting rains possible along the coast as well as North and
Central Washington Cascades Saturday night into Sunday. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion