Zephyrhills, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

490
FXUS62 KTBW 110038
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
838 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Latest surface analyses continues to show the persistent stalled
frontal boundary draped across the FL Peninsula and into the SE
Gulf with deep tropical moisture S of the front and much drier air
building into the Deep South and nudging into N FL.
This afternoon/evening`s heavy precip thunderstorms have weakened
and decreased in coverage in southern zones attm that may linger
until around midnight.
Next vort max wrapping around upper trough in the Gulf to move over
SE Gulf and SW FL with another high PoP day Thursday. Latest grids
and forecast on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Waning TSRA in SW FL with MVFR cigs thru 02Z then clearing
areawide for VFR conditions tonight. Low confidence in another
morning of stratus MVFR cigs around 12Z. Thu afternoon seabreeze
PoPs aft 18Z in mainly SW and interior terminals to mention VCTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The big difference in our weather today compared to the last few
days is the front that has been sitting to our north has now shifted
south along I-4. The low pressure system about 100 miles off our
coast has also shifted slightly south. This resulted in some
overcast skies this morning that has just started breaking up in the
last few hours. Shower activity today will be mainly along I-4 and
south. We will have much of the same tomorrow with shower chances
focused south of I-4 with drier air along the Nature Coast.
A strong upper level trough will be pushing through the state on
Friday and this will also help to push the front down into South
Florida. This will keep most of the shower activity along Southwest
Florida as drier air starts to filter into West Central Florida.
This will set up for a beautiful weekend with the only significant
rain shower chances confined to Lee county. Sadly the models have
bumped up lows and dew point temperatures a degree or two which
means most of us will stay in the low 70`s instead of getting into
the 60`s during the morning hours. But overall humidity will
still be below average for this time of year and will get down to
around 50 to 60% in the afternoon.
This tread of drier air and lower rain shower chances will be
sticking around for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A front draped across the middle of the state will continue to
produce some gustier winds in our off shore waters with speeds
around 10 to 15 knots. The front has also produced scattered
showers mainly south of Tampa Bay. This trend will continue
through Friday. After that a strong upper level trough will push
through causing the front to push south. This will help to keep us
dry for the weekend however winds will still stay around 10 to 15
knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A front stalled across I-4 will continue to bring in ample
moisture for the rest of the week. A strong upper level trough
will push the front south for the weekend bringing in lower
humidity and rain shower chances but nothing near any critical
levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  75  89 /  30  40  20  20
FMY  75  89  74  86 /  30  80  40  60
GIF  74  89  73  88 /  20  50  20  30
SRQ  75  89  73  87 /  30  60  30  40
BKV  71  90  68  88 /  20  30  10  20
SPG  77  88  75  86 /  30  50  20  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion