369 FXUS63 KGID 291106 AFDGIDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably warm today with highs in the mid-upper 80s.
- Above normal temperatures, breezy afternoon winds and mostly sunny skies continue through Friday.
- Precipitation chances (15-25%) return this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Today and Tuesday...
Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the upper 50s to mid 60s with mostly clear skies. Aloft a ridge resides over the Midwest with a trough over the southwest, placing the area under southwesterly flow. This southwesterly flow will result in another seasonably warm day across the area. Highs in the mid-upper 80s are expected today, but would not be surprised if some areas reach into the 90s given the recent trend of "overshooting" highs. Winds will be on the breezier size this afternoon, mainly west of Highway 281, gusting 20-25mph. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s with partly- mostly cloudy skies.
Similar weather is expected on Tuesday across the forecast area. Highs on Tuesday look to be slightly cooler due to lingering cloud coverage, but still climb into the 80s, warmest west of Highway 281. Breezy southerly winds return during the afternoon hours, gusting 20- 25mph.
Wednesday through Friday...
A passing disturbance within the southwesterly flow aloft will move through the area on Wednesday. 00z GFS and ECMWF ensemble members have increased chances for light rain with this disturbance compared to their 12z runs. For now the NBM remains dry during this time range, but would not be surprised if low PoPs were eventually introduced. If rain were to occur, any accumulations would be light (under 0.10") due to dry air near the surface. Another seasonably warm day is expected on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s.
Southwesterly flow persists on Thursday and Friday in what starts to feel like a broken record. Above normal temperatures (highs mid- upper 80s, low 60s), sunny skies and breezy afternoon winds (gusts 20-30mph) are expected each day.
Saturday and Sunday...
A more significant trough/troughing is expected to arrive this weekend, bringing the next chance for PoPs (15-25%) to the area. There remains a fair amount of spread in model guidance on the timing and strength of troughing this weekend. Still, at least some rain possible across the area this weekend but details will become clearer as we get closer. Cooler, but near normal temperatures are expected this weekend due to this troughing with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions through TAF period. Southerly winds increase during the mid- late morning hours. Sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts of 15-20kts are expected during the afternoon hours, strongest at KEAR. Winds decrease after sunset, with sustained winds around 6-8kts and gusts around 10kts overnight. FEW-SCT high level clouds are possible during the day, becoming SCT-BKN overnight.
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.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None.
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DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis
NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion